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Democrats’ advantage in midterm election support is shrinking

The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates has dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year. At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trump’s approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison with aaa replica designer handbags signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after high quality replica handbags the Fake Designer Bags mass Replica Handbags shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. More than 4 in 10 registered voters say itis extremely important that candidates share Designer Replica Bags their views on gun issues. Fewer voters say it is critical that candidates share their views on Trump or House replica handbags china Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Replica Bags (D Calif.), leaders who are most likely to be targets in partisan messaging this fall.[Read full poll results How the poll was conducted]With the Fake Handbags Republicans’ House majority at risk, 47percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43percent favor the Republican. That four point margin compares with a 12 point advantage Democrats Fake Designer Bags held in January. Among a broader group of voting age adults, the Democrats’ margin is 10 points, Replica Bags 50percent to 40percent.Republicans owe part of their improved standing to Trump’s thawing job ratings. The Post ABC poll finds that 40percent approve of the president, up slightly from 36percent Designer Fake Bags in January to his highest level of support since last April. Still, Trump continues to face majority disapproval at 56percent, higher than any other president at this stage since the dawn of aaa replica designer handbags modern polling, an indication that he remains a significant liability for Republicans on ballots in November.The survey KnockOff Handbags shows the GOP making a more pronounced shift among white voters, who now prefer Republicans by a 14 point margin over Democrats, up from replica bags five points Wholesale Replica Bags in January. Republicans lead by 60percent to 31percent among white voters without college degrees, slightly larger than an 18 point GOP advantage three months ago.The situation in the districts where Replica Bags Wholesale control of the House replica Purse is likely to be decided is slightly more favorable for Democrats. The Cook Political Report, which produces nonpartisan analysis, lists 56 of the 435 congressional districts Fake Handbags as competitive 51 of them in Republican hands to just five held by Democrats.In competitive districts excluding Pennsylvania, where new boundaries were drawn this year, Democrats have an edge of 50percent to 43percent when voters are asked which party’s candidates they would Designer Fake Bags favor if the election in their Fake Handbags district were held today. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to capture the majority in the House.Special elections and gubernatorial races over the past year have shown that Democrats are benefiting aaa replica designer handbags from a surge in voter enthusiasm, including a narrow victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District in March, Handbags Replica which Trump won by nearly 20points in 2016.The Post ABC poll finds parity in stated voting intentions. Among registered voters, 68percent of both Republican leaning and Democratic leaning registered voters say they are certain they will vote. This contrasts with Post ABC polling ahead of the 2010 and 2014 midterm cycles, when Republicans averaged a double digit advantage in intentions to vote. Democrats suffered major losses Replica Bags in both years.Other public polls have found a narrowing in Democrats’ midterm advantage, although it has been less sharp than in the Post Replica Bags ABC poll.An average of public polls compiled by The Post finds Democrats’ lead on this metric stood at eight points in January and 11 points in February but six points in polls over the past 30 days, similar to the Post ABC poll’s Replica Handbags four point margin. Analysts expect Democrats to need a six to eight point lead in “generic ballot replica Purse polls” to win a majority of congressional districts.The purse replica handbags new survey points to opportunities and challenges for both parties in coming months.Some core constituencies of each Wholesale Replica Bags party expressed tepid interest in turning out to vote in an off year election, when many eligible voters typically stay home. Although 58percent of all adults Wholesale Replica Bags say they are sure they will vote this year, that falls to Designer Fake Bags fewer than 4 in 10 among adults younger than 30. Fake Handbags Young voters have heavily favored Democrats in recent elections. Certainty to vote dips to 54percent among African Americans and 39percent among Hispanics. Those wholesale replica designer handbags compare with 64percent among whites, a majority of whom favor Handbags Replica Republicans.At the same time, white voters with college degrees, a competitive voting bloc, are 14points more likely to say they are certain to vote than whites with some college or less, a group that has increasingly favored Republicansand voted for Trump at record levels.Sixty one percent of men and 56percent of women say they are certain to vote, with 55percent of female registered voters saying they favor a Democratic candidate and 50percent of men backing a Republican. Democrats replica handbags online are counting Replica Designer Handbags on strong turnout among women to help their candidates in November.The renewed gun control debate is a wild card in the midterm election, with lawmakers facing pressure wholesale replica designer handbags from students nationwide to pass new laws. Several polls have shown heightened support for restrictions aimed at curbing gun violence following February’s massacre in Parkland.Although public activism has put pressure on Republicans and the National Rifle Association, thePost ABC poll suggests that neither party holds an advantageinsupport among the 42percent of voters who say it’s “extremelyimportant” that a congressionalcandidate share their views on the Designer Replica Bags issue. Within this group, three quarters of voters who prioritize enacting new gun laws support Democrats for Congress, while 8 in 10 of those who give protecting gun rights greater significance support Republicans. As a whole, the group splits nearly evenly, with 47percent supporting Democrats and 46percent backing Republicans.A smaller group, 31percent, say cheap replica handbags it is “extremely important” for congressional candidates to share their views about Trump, although more than half say this will be at least “very important.” Those who say it is extremely important favor Democrats over Republicans by 11 points, 54percent to 43percent.Many Republicans are trying to make Democratic leader Pelosi a focus of their campaigns. In the poll, 17percent of voters say a candidate’s views on Pelosi will be extremely important in Handbags Replica their vote, and Republicans lead Democrats by 16points among this group in the generic congressional ballot.Pelosi has a negative image, with 32percent of Americans holding a favorable view of her, and 44percent unfavorable. But nearly one quarter have no opinion of the former House speaker, who could regain the gavel if Democrats flip the House. Among Republicans, she is well known and widely disliked, with 74percent holding unfavorable views of her, 63percent strongly.The Post ABC poll was conducted April 8 Designer Replica Bags 11 among a random national sample of 1,002 adults reached on cellphones and landline telephones. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; the error margin is four points Fake Designer Bags among the sample of 865 registered voters.

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